Why It Could End Today

As I write this, at about 3 AM, it is now April 6th, 2008. Indiana and North Carolina vote today.

The polls show Barack leading in North Carolina, with Hillary leading Indiana (at least in most polls). If that happens, goes the media narrative, we're back to square one and nothing changes.

I think they're wrong about that, and here's why:

During the last couple of months, both campaigns have been chomping at the bit to release the previous month's fundraising numbers. For instance, last month, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns released March's fundraising info--$20 million for her, $40 million for him--on April 3rd. In February, they both did so well--$35 million for her, $55 million for him--that the Clinton campaign actually released their info on February 28th, while the Obama campaign said they had raised at least $50 million.

But here it is, April 6th, with key primaries on tap, and not a word from either campaign. What does this mean? Why aren't they so eager to announce their financials this time?

For Obama, it's an easy figure: April was a rough month. He probably didn't do as well as he had in prior months--to release such information before the primaries would simply give Clinton more ammo in her "See, he can't close the deal" argument.

But what about Clinton? Her campaign was all too eager to announce that they raised $10 million in 24 hours after Pennsylvania. So, if they had good numbers for the month overall, wouldn't that be something they would want everyone to know?

So we have to think about this: what would be numbers that both campaigns would be a little sheepish about releasing?

For Obama, I'd guess that it's anything under, say $30 million or so--anything where they were worried that Clinton, with her $10 million in one day, might have outraised them.

What about Clinton?

I would argue that she would release any numbers that were better than the month before, especially if she got over the $25 million mark. So it's probably less than that. It's probably less than the $20 million she got in March--Obama had a rough April, but so did Clinton, what with the Tuzla sniper-fire and the increasing perception that she was unfairly attacking Obama. So, what if she only made $15 million, even with that $10 million from the day after PA that they claim? It's certainly possible--her big donors are tapped out, and she has nothing near the Internet fundraising capacity that Obama has displayed.

So...let's say Obama raised $25 million, Clinton maybe, eh, $18 million.

The problem is this: that $18 million is probably already gone. Her campaign was already in deep financial trouble. They're probably in even deeper now. I haven't seen figures for how much the campaigns have spent, but covering these two states couldn't have been cheap.

So, if tomorrow breaks down as people expect, and especially if Obama should go over 10 percent in N.C. and keep Hillary below 5 in Indiana--in fact, ANY kind of unexpected Obama strength--and I just don't see where Clinton gets more money.

That $10 million from PA may have been her last gasp.

Yes, she may drag on through Oregon, and hope to pull an upset there--but that's gonna be awfully hard to do with no cash. At SOME point this month, she's going to have to release her financials. IF, that is, she's still in the race.

I don't think she has any money left. And, for all her tough talk about taking this thing all the way to the convention, I really don't think she can. If she's so confident, why has she been whining about Obama outspending her everywhere? We've seen how deep her (and Bill's) pockets are--if they really believe she can win, why aren't they putting more of their money where their mouths are?

Maybe she really will try to pull the nuclear option on May 31st and get Florida and Michigan seated as-is. I don't believe the party will allow it, personally.

I think she's out of cash. She'll still win West Virginia and Kentucky, probably--but Obama will absolutely destroy her in Oregon if she doesn't have the money. And that may be the death knell.

Nothing has been predictable about this election. I'm certainly no expert. But it's interesting that I haven't heard anything about this anywhere--not in the media, not on DKos, nowhere.

All is quiet on the fundraising front. And for Hillary Clinton, that is a very bad thing indeed.